RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek


Conjunctuurbeeld Spanje

De eerste BBP-schatting laat zien dat de recessie zich in 13K1 heeft voortgezet. Inkomende data brachten echter ook positiever nieuws. De werkloosheidsstijging lijkt langzaam af te zwakken en de inflatiedaling vergroot de kans op loonmatiging.


Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

Economic growth is slowing down in Emerging Markets. In China, GDP growth slowed to 7.7% yoy in 1Q13, while Brazil's industrial production figures for February were disappointing. However, growth is still expected to be slightly higher than in 2012.


Country Report Croatia (Engelstalig)

Croatia will join the European Union on July 1st, 2013, but its accession is unlikely to bring about short-term relief from its economic problems. Its economy is expected to remain in recession this year, as domestic and external demand stay weak.


Country Report Spain (Engelstalig)

Given the weak economic outlook and high unemployment, it will remain a tough challenge for the government to push through its austerity and reform agenda. Regarding structural reforms that improve long term potential growth, Spain remains on track.


Country Report Luxembourg (Engelstalig)

Although Luxembourg’s austerity effort is limited, in combination with the slow recovery in the eurozone, it will hamper economic growth during 2013. Supervisory reforms might have an impact on its position in the international financial sector.


Country Report France (Engelstalig)

The recent decennium shows a gradual deterioration of the strength of the private sector. President Hollande has shown he is willing to address this, but we seriously doubt whether his reforms will be sufficient to change France’s economic model.


Country Report Greece (Engelstalig)

In November 2012, the Troika relaxed Greece’s budget and privatization targets and there was a deal to bring down the government debt. Although positive, we still believe a further debt restructuring is necessary to make the debt more sustainable.


Country Report Portugal (Engelstalig)

Implementation of Portugal’s bailout program remains broadly on track. Considerable progress has been made, especially regarding the implementation of structural reforms. That said, we stress that political stability must not be taken for granted.


Country Report Canada (Engelstalig)

The budgetary problems of the US government could affect Canada significantly. Furthermore, the continuing strength of the Canadian dollar is weighing on exports. Domestic risks stem from high household indebtedness and a slowing housing market.


Sweden (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Sweden experienced a very robust economic recovery and the current momentum bodes well for a continuation of this trend. Given the sound position of public finances, future harsh austerity measures are no direct necessity. Besides that, the Swedish economy is characterized by very strong fundamentals.


Drie tot de derde

De wereldeconomie ontwikkelt zich op drie snelheden, zo stelde het IMF recent vast. Daar waar opkomende economieën relatief gezond groeien, zijn de vooruitzichten voor de westerse wereld minder uitbundig.