RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Landenrapport

Hungary (Country update) (Engelstalig)

Hungary’s economic situation continues to deteriorate with alarming speed. While the ongoing eurozone crisis puts pressure on Hungary’s economy, the government continues to spook investors.

Landenrapport

Romania (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Romania’s economy was severely impacted by the global crisis and only started to recover last year, reporting a 2% growth rate. We expect growth to slow in light of the eurozone recession and deleveraging by eurozone banks.

Landenrapport

Dominican Republic (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in the Dominican Republic fell from 7.8% in 2010 to 4.1% last year, as the government had to rein in fiscal stimulus under an IMF standby-agreement. No major policy changes are expected.

Landenrapport

India (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Economic growth in India is expected to fall below the ‘magic’ 7% in fiscal year 2011/12. Five state elections are planned for 2012, which will give more information on the popularity of the government.

Landenrapport

Malaysia (Country report) (Engelstalig)

Being one of the most open countries in Asia, Malaysia is sensitive to swings in external demand. Demand for Malaysia’s electronics is expected to be weaker in 2012, but a rise of oil and gas prices would benefit Malaysia as a net energy exporter.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Belgium (Engelstalig)

In the second half of 2011 the Belgian economy experienced a mild recession. Also this year growth of domestic demand will be very weak, partly due to the fiscal consolidation measures.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Germany (Engelstalig)

Many instantly concluded that Germany’s annual GDP growth in 2011 (3%) implies economic contraction in 11Q4. In our view, such straightforward derivations are unwarranted. That said, the likelihood of GDP contraction in 11Q4 increased markedly.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Italy (Engelstalig)

The Italian economy fell back into recession in11Q3. The pace of decline probably accelerated in the fourth quarter and we expect a further contraction in 12Q1. The announced austerity measures will hold back growth in 2012 as a whole.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld België

In de tweede helft van 2011 was de Belgische economie in een lichte recessie. Mede door de forse bezuinigingsopgave zal de groei van de binnenlandse bestedingen naar verwachting ook in 2012 zeer zwak zijn.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland

Velen concludeerden dat de Duitse jaar-op-jaar groei (3% in 2011) een krimp in 11K4 impliceerde. Naar onze mening is deze redenering te direct. Wel is de kans op een krimp in 11K4 aanzienlijk toegenomen.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Conjunctuurbeeld Italië

De Italiaanse economie viel in 11K3 terug in recessie. In het vierde kwartaal is die krimp waarschijnlijk versneld en ook voor 12K1 verwachten wij een verdere economische teruggang.