RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeeld

Russia: Slowdown continues, stimulus expected (Engelstalig)

The most recent data shows that economic growth in Russia continues to slow down. There have been talks of a fiscal stimulus package, which is feasible given Russia’s healthy public finances. However, it is not without risks in the long term.

Conjunctuurbeeld

India: Weak recovery after disappointing year (Engelstalig)

In 2012-13, growth in India fell to the lowest rate in a decade. We expect a modest recovery going forward. A favorable monsoon is likely to boost growth somewhat, but the current account deficit constrains the room to apply (further) stimulus.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Brazil: Recovery continues to disappoint (Engelstalig)

Growth in Brazil disappointed once again in 1Q2013. Investment was very strong, but we expect it to become less vigorous in the rest of the year. Meanwhile, private consumption slowed down strongly. We now expect growth of only 2¼% this year.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

The recent batch of positive data suggest that the recovery has arrived. The recent pick up of sentiment and loosening of financial conditions suggest that activity will slowly gather pace in the coming months. But the growth outlook remains weak.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

If being disappointed is worse than being angry, the World is in a terrible place. However, one can read two things into disappointment either: the performance is really bad, or the expectations were too high.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update France (Engelstalig)

The mild GDP contraction that France experienced for a year now is expected to continue in 13Q2. The extra two years France was granted to reach the budget target of 3%-GDP prevent a tough fiscal adjustment which would further hamper the recovery.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Belgium (Engelstalig)

In the first quarter GDP grew by 0.1%. We do not expect domestic demand to support economic activity in 13Q2. By violating EU's budgetary rules, Belgium risks a fine and the government is forced to announce additional fiscal austerity measures.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update The Netherlands (Engelstalig)

The Dutch economy still finds itself in recession. In the first quarter, GDP volume contracted by 0.1% on a quarterly basis. Sentiment indicators do not yet point at a speedy recovery.