RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

In our final economic update of this year, we present our regional outlooks for next year. While we generally expect a fragile economic recovery, some regions are particularly exposed to the euro area debt crisis or an unresolved US fiscal cliff.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

UK's GDP was boosted by temporary factors in 12Q3. Output is expected to contract in 12Q4. The improvement in the labour market is slowing down. Inflation is expected to fall less rapidly, which will be an extra headwind for households in 2013.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update France (Engelstalig)

After the pickup in 12K3, several indicators point to a deterioration of economic activity in 12K4. For 2013 domestic demand is expected to remain weak amid large tax hikes, which will be imposed on both households and businesses.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Italy (Engelstalig)

In the third quarter, the Italian recession was more moderate than in the first half of the year. Although business sentiment improved in the past months, the recession is set to continue.

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Economic Update The Netherlands (Engelstalig)

The Dutch economy contracted by 1.1% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2012. The contraction is disappointing, particularly as net trade no longer contributed to growth.

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Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

In 3Q12, economic growth slowed in many emerging markets, including China, Mexico and Poland. This triggered the IMF and others to revise their estimates downward. For China, the end of the slowdown seems in sight, but this is not the case for India.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Spain (Engelstalig)

The contraction of the Spanish GDP volume in 12Q3 was much smaller than expected. But this will prove to be a temporary effect, since consumers have frontloaded their spending in August to avoid paying higher VAT rates in September.

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Economic Update The Netherlands (Engelstalig)

On 29 October coalition partners VVD and PvdA presented their programme for government. Projected savings of 15? bn euro are to be achieved via measures that are to come on top of proposals under the 1st Rutte cabinet and the 2013 budget agreement.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Germany (Engelstalig)

The leading indicators are all weakening, pointing towards softer growth in 12Q4. Hard data are still more resilient, thanks to strong exports. Housing prices continued to rise in 12H1. Consumer confidence is improving amid a worsening labour market.

Economisch commentaar

Economic visibility must improve quickly (Engelstalig)

Policy uncertainty remains high and this will have negative repercussions for growth. Thus far, financial markets have remained optimistic, but policymakers should not expect this to continue for far longer if policy visibility does not improve.

Economisch commentaar

How are exposures to periphery evolving? (Engelstalig)

Domestic residents of the euro periphery countries have increased their exposure to their respective governments as foreigners headed for the exit. This is an unwelcome development since it further reinforces the link between sovereigns and banks.

Economisch commentaar

China's growth rate slows further (Engelstalig)

In the third quarter, China's economic growth continued to slow, as had been expected. However, the data also shows some green shoots. We expect that growth will slightly accelerate in the last quarter, implying the growth slowdown has bottomed out.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Italy (Engelstalig)

In 12Q2, the Italian economy recorded its fourth quarterly decline. The economy will remain in recession in the second half of the year, but we expect the pace of contraction to moderate.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

Several emerging markets continue to experience a slowdown in growth. Growth in 12Q2 went down in both Russia and Turkey, while growth in China is likely to slow down further in Q3 as well. Meanwhile, industrial production in Mexico remained strong.