RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

Both growth and currencies appear to be on the slide in emerging markets around the World. In Brazil, China and India, governments are coming to the fore trying to keep growth at reasonable levels. There are a few scattered bright spots though.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Italy (Engelstalig)

In the first quarter of 2012, the Italian GDP fell back for the third in a row. Consumer and producer confidence has deteriorated over the past months. This makes it very likely that the recession stretches out into the third quarter of 2012.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

GDP contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1. This means a technical recession is now a reality. Going forward, output will bounce around over the next few quarters due to the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics.

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Economic Update The Netherlands (Engelstalig)

In the first three months of 2012 the Dutch economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter. Thus the Netherlands is still in recession. Consumption remains low, held back by tax increases and cutbacks combined with low consumer confidence.

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Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

China’s growth has reached its lowest level since the financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 50bps. Brazil’s central bank also cut its policy rate.

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Economic Update Germany (Engelstalig)

The PMI manufacturing data in April is pointing to economic contraction in 12Q2. But the other reliable leading indicators suggest the recovery is still on track.

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Economic Update Spain (Engelstalig)

Spain is back in recession. The economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in 12Q1 – exactly matching the decline in the previous quarter.

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Economic Update The Netherlands (Engelstalig)

The decommissioned cabinet reached agreement with parties outside the coalition on a supplementary package of measures, with which the government deficit will be reduced from 4.6% to 3% of GDP in 2013.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Belgium (Engelstalig)

Recent figures show that the Belgian economy did not experience a recession last year and that 2012 started with growth. Although encouraging, this does not pave the way for solid growth during the course of the year.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update The Netherlands (Engelstalig)

The contraction of the Dutch economy has been adjusted upwards by 0.1% point. Corrected for working day and seasonal effects, the real contraction in the fourth quarter was 0.6%. For 2012 as a whole, a negative real growth is expected of -¾%.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

While growth in Mexico is picking up, Turkey’s economy is finally cooling down and also in the Dominican Republic growth is slowing. Meanwhile, Poland’s growth continues to be driven by consumption.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update France (Engelstalig)

The sound performance in recent quarters reflects the stability of the French economy. In the eurozone, France functions as a bastion of moderate economic growth. That said, harsh austerity measures will weigh on domestic demand in the coming years.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Emerging Markets (Engelstalig)

The emerging markets are almost all losing their growth momentum. Even China, which has been the light at the end of the tunnel for a couple of years, is now reducing its growth target to below 8%.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Spain (Engelstalig)

The Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in the last quarter of 2011. We expect a further contraction in the first quarter of the current year. Government spending cuts and tax hikes will have a negative impact on domestic demand this year.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

The UK GDP contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in 11Q4. On a positive note, household spending finally grew after 4 quarters of contraction. Going forward, falling inflation may result in stronger consumer spending.