RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4? (Engelstalig)

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economisch commentaar

Germany: Is recession a done deal? (Engelstalig)

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economisch commentaar

Is a weaker euro desirable now? (Engelstalig)

The depreciation of the euro may not result in the much-needed boost to the region’s net exports. However, it is making life difficult for households. The rise in the price of oil to near record highs is adding to eurozone’s economic woes.

Conjunctuurbeeld Engelstalige versie

Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk

Het jaar is goed begonnen met een stroom van positief nieuws. De voorlopende indicatoren van december waren sterker dan verwacht, wat kan betekenen dat het momentum van de economie begin 2012 verbeterd is.

Conjunctuurbeeld Engelstalige versie

Conjunctuurbeeld Frankrijk

De Franse economie toonde haar veerkracht in 11K3, maar wij verwachten dat de effecten van de schuldencrisis in de komende maanden steeds duidelijker zichtbaar zullen worden. Er is voorlopig geen reden voor optimisme.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Economic Update Spain (Engelstalig)

In 11Q3, export growth managed to keep the Spanish economy out of recession. But the available economic data for 11Q4 point to GDP contraction in that quarter. For the first quarter of this year we also expect GDP to fall.

Economisch commentaar

Is the global economy stabilising? (Engelstalig)

The December manufacturing PMIs have surprised on the upside. We should take comfort that the deterioration in PMIs is nowhere close to what we witnessed at the height of the crisis in 2008-09.