RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Landenrapport

Country Report Hungary (Engelstalig)

Over 2014 Hungary's economic growth increased to 3% thanks to a surge of EU-funds, the central bank’s “Lending for Growth” scheme, a peak in (car) industry investments, a good harvest and low inflation. For 2015 an economic growth of about 2.5% and a budget deficit below 3% is expected. Concerns remain about the continuation of unorthodox economic policies.

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Country Report Bulgaria (Engelstalig)

Growth in Bulgaria remains weak and fiscal balances have been deteriorating, though from a low base. The banking sector has weathered last year’s crisis well, but further measures are necessary to improve its resilience in the future

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Country report United Kingdom (Engelstalig)

The UK economy has seen more balanced growth lately: wage growth has returned, debt levels are gradually falling and the housing market has cooled down. However, a low Euro weighs on export performance while the risk of a Brexit has increased.

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Country Report Poland (Engelstalig)

Poland embarked on a broad-based economic recovery, as growth rose from 1.6% in 2013 to 3.3% last year. Large amounts of CHF-denominated mortgages should not derail the recovery, while upcoming elections are unlikely to lead to major policy changes.

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Country Report Turkey (Engelstalig)

Political pressure on the central bank ahead of parliamentary elections contributed to a strong depreciation of the Turkish lira. Concerns about a possible executive presidency after elections and more populist economic policies unnerve investors.

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Country report Portugal (Engelstalig)

The Portuguese economy returned to growth in 2014 but medium term prospects remain weak. Meanwhile, with an election this year, the reform effort while this year’s budget is based on overly optimistic assumptions.

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Country Report Spain (Engelstalig)

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain its competitiveness while domestic demand strengthens. The low quality of employment created may hurt productivity growth. We expect to see political fragmentation at the national level.

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Country report Ireland (Engelstalig)

The strong rebound of the Irish economy supported private sector deleveraging while the housing prices rebounded strongly. With the budget deficit down and political stability enduring, the situation in Ireland is set to improve further.

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Country report Italy (Engelstalig)

Italy’s economy shrank again in 2014, and is expected to only recover slowly. Political stability has improved a bit and the government’s reform agenda is promising. Some major reforms have already been achieved, but progress is and will remain slow.

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Country Report Belgium (Engelstalig)

The new centre-right government plans to target the budget deficit and Belgian firms’ competitiveness. Thanks to various measures implemented by the former and current government, the increase in unit labour costs came to halt in 2014.