Landenrapport
Economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the coming years, with the weak banking sector unable to support the recovery. Some major reforms achieved over the past years still have to prove their effectiveness, while reform progress will slow.
Landenrapport
The short-term economic outlook is strong. But, continued reform progress and fiscal consolidation are necessary to improve debt sustainability and the weak external position. The outlook for both is rather weak due to the current political instability.
Landenrapport
In case of a Brexit, a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty is likely, hurting the British financial sector and business investments. Other risks stem from the high private debt and the banking sector.
Landenrapport
Turkey’s economy expanded by 4% last year, but Russian sanctions and weaker tourist arrivals will negatively affect growth this year. In spite of the AKP’s regained parliamentary majority, Turkey’s political situation remains volatile which could once more weigh on essential foreign capital inflows.
Landenrapport
The Dutch economy is clearly in recovery modus, with growth being driven by both exports and domestic demand. Public finances are expected to improve. Household debt levels are still relatively high.
Landenrapport
The Swiss export sector was affected by a sharp appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) following the Swiss central bank’s (SNB) decision to scrap the currency ceiling early 2015. However, economic growth held up and we expect a rebound of economic growth and exports this year.
Landenrapport
The centre-right government has successfully implemented several policy measures to improve Belgian price competitiveness. High public debt, inflation and security issues are the most prominent downward risks for a stable economic recovery.
Landenrapport
Ireland posted very strong growth of 7.8% last year which supports deleveraging and house prices but asset quality of banks remains poor and could hurt banks and the government in the future. As possibly worst affected, Ireland is closely following the Brexit debate.
Landenrapport
The German economy performs well on the back of a competitive export sector and is rebalancing towards domestic demand, driven by a strong labour market. The recent surge in immigration poses a significant challenge for the German economy.
Landenrapport
The May 2016 presidential elections will help determine whether the recent favourable developments in terms of governance will continue. Growth has remained rather high, and is expected to continue to do so in the near term.
Landenrapport
Government stimulus helps South Korea’s economy hold ground against domestic and external headwinds. Tensions with North Korea picked up, but are unlikely to have severe consequences.
Landenrapport
The Australian economy remains resilient. After the mining investment boom, the economy is now primarily driven by net exports and consumption. Meanwhile, the housing market softened due to tightened lending standards to housing investors.
Landenrapport
Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.
Landenrapport
Growth in Malaysia slowed down as a result of lower commodity prices. The involvement of PM Najib in a large corruption scandal is hurting his position and international investors’ confidence. This has resulted in increased external pressure on the economy and the balance of payments.
Landenrapport
The US benefits from a more stable and bipartisan politics lately while the conclusion of TPP is set to reinforce its geopolitical clout. The economy looks on track with unemployment at pre-crisis levels.
