RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special

Eurozone pent-up demand: big and decisive or over-estimated and uncertain? (Engelstalig)

A recovery in consumption this year seems all but certain, but expectations about its vigour – underpinned by the ‘pent-up demand’ narrative – could well be too optimistic. Although Eurozone households have stacked up some EUR600bn in additional saving since the pandemic, we argue that a sizeable part of those savings will probably stick. In this research note we explore three scenarios.

Special

Inflation: Ambient or transient? (Engelstalig)

Markets have been in the grips of ‘reflation’. Unless wage inflation picks up or governments stimulate beyond covid-19, the current upward forces on inflation will prove transient. Therefore, the ECB is expected to look through this rise in inflation.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis (Engelstalig)

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Special

Economic implications of the coronavirus (Engelstalig)

The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None (Engelstalig)

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.