RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Economisch commentaar Engelstalige versie

Stand van zaken Griekenland/Grexit

De Eurogroep heeft afgelopen zaterdag (27 juni) de onderhandelingen over een verlenging van het bailout-programma stopgezet, wat het risico op een Grieks faillissement vergroot. Met het oog op de geringe exposure op Griekenland van Eurozone banken en de nieuwe crisismechanismen op Europees niveau voorzien wij echter geen grootschalige besmetting van andere Europese landen.


Country Report Oman (Engelstalig)

Economic growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the medium term underpinned by strong domestic demand and economic diversification. However, the combination of high government spending and a decreased oil price puts pressure on fiscal sustainability.


Country Report United Arab Emirates (Engelstalig)

Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, it is strongly affected by the decreasing oil price since the second half of 2014.


Country Report Egypt (Engelstalig)

Domestic stability in Egypt has improved markedly and the economy is showing timid signs of recovery. The government has engaged in bold reforms. Generous aid from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries gives it the financial space to gradually implement those reforms.


Country Report Kazakhstan (Engelstalig)

Kazakhstan had a less fortunate economic year in 2014, caused by the decreasing oil price in the second half of last year and the negative wealth effects as a result of the tenge devaluation. For 2015, substantially lower economic growth and twin deficits are expected.


Country Report Israel (Engelstalig)

The Israeli economy is likely to continue to grow at a moderate pace, while the strong growth of mortgage debt and the rise of housing prices pose risks. Meanwhile, a new round of peace talks with the Palestinians is not obvious under a new government that is dominated by nationalists and ultra-Orthodox parties.


Country Report Kuwait (Engelstalig)

The growth of Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed further in 2014, as oil prices slumped. Stimulating development of the non-oil sector requires reforms that will be difficult to pass, especially if they come at a cost of welfare programmes. Meanwhile, the political situation eased somewhat as the current parliament is proving more cooperative.


Country Report Bahrain (Engelstalig)

The oil price decline negatively affects economic growth and puts pressure on the fiscal position of Bahrain. Meanhile, Saudi Arabia is still (implicitly) backing the Sunni Al-Khalifa regime, both financially and militarily, in an effort to keep Iran at bay.