Special
In many Eurozone countries, private sector debt has decreased in recent years and so has the vulnerability of the private sector to higher interest rates. Yet in many countries debt remains high and in several countries vulnerabilities are still present.
Special
The US had announced USD 50bn of tariffs on Chinese exports and China has responded with a matching USD 50bn of tariffs on US exports. But the US has now raised the ante with a further unspecified USD 200bn of tariffs on Chinese goods - and the threat of a further USD 200bn if China responds again in kind. What is the possible impact and what might happen next?
Special
The macroeconomic impact of the recently announced tit-for-tat trade-restrictive measures by the NAFTA partners and the EU deviates to a substantial degree between the parties involved, with the smaller ones getting the worst of it. This suggests that trade wars favour bigger economies like the US and EU.
Special
Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.
