RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Special Engelstalige versie

Visie op 2016: internationale economie

De mondiale groei houdt in 2016 aan, maar versnelt niet. De VS is bijna klaar voor een renteverhoging en de rest van de wereld wacht in spanning af. Normalisatie van het monetaire beleid is economisch riskant, maar te lang, te ruim monetair beleid ook.

Special Engelstalige versie

Visie op 2016: financiële markten

Terwijl de Chinese renminbi devalueert, wordt de dollar ook in algemene zin sterker in 2016, mede door Fed renteverhogingen. De ECB doet eerder het omgekeerde, waardoor het het Eurodollar valutapaar verder verzwakt. Iets hogere kapitaalmarktrentes liggen wel in het verschiet.

Economisch commentaar

In oil, rebalancing is the key word (Engelstalig)

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.


Country Report Lebanon (Engelstalig)

Lebanon’s economy continues to show weak growth in 2014 (3%), being adversely effected by the conflict in Syria. But the banking sector remains healthy and Lebanon still has ample foreign reserves, which mitigates its otherwise high country risk.


Country Report Jordan (Engelstalig)

Jordan’s economic situation is improving. GDP growth has picked up to 3.1% in 2014, driven by lower oil prices and growth in the tourism sector. The greatest risk is still that the conflicts in Syria and Iraq will lead to negative spill-overs.


Iran: dealing with the deal (Engelstalig)

Iran’s nuclear deal will be a clear plus for its economy and its trade partners. Globally, the economic impact is mainly through lower oil prices. Geopolitically, it might increase tensions within the Middle East as Iran becomes more powerful.


Country Report Oman (Engelstalig)

Economic growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the medium term underpinned by strong domestic demand and economic diversification. However, the combination of high government spending and a decreased oil price puts pressure on fiscal sustainability.


Country Report United Arab Emirates (Engelstalig)

Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, it is strongly affected by the decreasing oil price since the second half of 2014.


Country Report Egypt (Engelstalig)

Domestic stability in Egypt has improved markedly and the economy is showing timid signs of recovery. The government has engaged in bold reforms. Generous aid from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries gives it the financial space to gradually implement those reforms.