Themabericht
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.
Economisch Kwartaalbericht Engelstalige versie
De groei van de wereldeconomie zal de komende jaren naar onze verwachting verder afnemen. Op basis van indicaties op financiële markten en zwakte op de Amerikaanse huizenmarkt verwachten we een recessie in de Verenigde Staten in de loop van 2020.
Infographic
Infographic bij het Economisch Kwartaalbericht van maart 2019.
Special
In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.
Infographic
Infographic on Rabobank’s integral model-based forecasting approach accompanying the publication 'Nowcasting the Indian economy'.
Themabericht
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Video
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Themabericht
There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.
Economisch commentaar
At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.
Special Engelstalige versie
Onze resultaten tonen aan dat China onevenredig de dupe zou worden van een bilaterale handelsoorlog met de Verenigde Staten. Hoewel de meeste verliezen terechtkomen in deze landen, heeft de bilaterale handelsoorlog ook negatieve gevolgen voor derden, zoals de eurozone en Nederland.
Special
This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.
Infographic Engelstalige versie
Infographic bij de publicatie 'China verliest meer dan de VS bij een verdere escalatie van de handelsoorlog'.
