RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Themabericht

Hoe gevoelig is de Nederlandse economie voor ontwikkelingen in Hongkong?

De directe handels- en investeringsrelatie van Nederland met Hongkong lijkt op het eerste gezicht beperkt. Maar er zijn ook diverse indirecte effecten die we in ogenschouw moeten nemen, zoals de rol die verdere escalatie kan spelen bij het brede conflict tussen de Verenigde Staten en China.

Themabericht

Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning (Engelstalig)

The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.

Economisch commentaar

China: Stimulus prevents further slowdown in growth (Engelstalig)

The lower GDP growth in the second quarter is in line with our expectations of a gradual economic slowdown. On the back of more government stimulus, June headed towards a slight recovery on several fronts. The question is not if, but when (trade) tensions with the US will flare up again.

Economisch commentaar

China: Stimulus as good old recipe for stabilization (Engelstalig)

China’s economic growth did not disappoint at first glance in the first quarter of 2019. It seems that the previously introduced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have put a floor under the economic slowdown since the second half of 2018, but it’s too early to cheer about a broad recovery.

Economisch commentaar

China: weak start of the Year of the Pig (Engelstalig)

The first months of 2019 show a mixed, but weak picture as far as economic activity is concerned. The National People’s Congress of 2019 focused on emphasizing stability, but this was combined with contradictory goals.

Economisch commentaar

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards? (Engelstalig)

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.