RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Conjunctuurbeelden: altijd up to date!



Conjunctuurbeelden zijn onze periodieke publicaties met de actuele conjuncturele ontwikkelingen in de beschreven (industrie-)landen. Daarbij kijken we ook naar onder meer het (economische) beleid van de desbetreffende overheden en het sentiment onder ondernemers.

De Conjunctuurbeelden zijn alleen beschikbaar in het Engels als Economic Update. Met uitzondering van het Conjunctuurbeeld Nederland. 

Conjunctuurbeelden - november/december 2013

Nederland: Het groeigevoel 
Het sentiment in de Nederlandse conjunctuur duidt op economische groei in het vierde kwartaal. Tegelijkertijd is het herstel broos en zal de werkloosheid waarschijnlijk nog oplopen.

Lees hier het Engelstalige Economic Update The Netherlands

Belgium: Good things come to those who wait
The economic recovery carries on as growth of domestic demand increases. Fiscal policy will be less distortive next year and inflation remains low. However, high unemployment and also wage moderation still limit private consumption growth.

Spain: Basta recesión!
Spanish GDP rose in 13Q3, after nine quarterly contractions in a row. Although positive, we do not expect a quick recovery on the labour market. Based on the Budget 2014, the fiscal effort will be slightly less than in preceding years.

Germany: Steady as she goes
Once again, the German economy posted a positive growth figure in the third quarter. The increase has been entirely domestic-driven. We expect domestic demand to remain strong given the solid labour market and the positive investment outlook.

France: Nombres rouges
The French economy slightly contracted in 13Q3, but this was largely due to a bounce back from the strong 13Q2 figure. We expect the recovery to continue, albeit very gradually. Therefore, we do not envisage a robust improvement in the labour market.

Italy: Arrivederci recessione?!
GDP growth stagnated in 13Q3. One cannot talk of a start of economic recovery yet, though. The contribution of domestic demand was negative and there are still significant headwinds. On a positive note, policy uncertainty might fall going forward.

Russia: Economic slowdown continues
Russia’s economic activity has continued to slow in 13Q3 and we expect growth in 2013 as a whole to be around 1.5%. The economic slowdown is starting to adversely impact public finances. The central bank has left rates on hold for now, despite falling inflation.

Brazil: Economy contracts in third quarter 2013
The third quarter was disappointing for Brazil, as GDP contracted for the first time since 2009 on a quarterly basis. Growth in the coming quarters is likely to be somewhat stronger, but leading indicators suggest that momentum remains rather weak.

India: Good monsoon nurtures economic green shoots
We are finally seeing some positive news in the Indian economy, but the recovery remains fragile.

Impact of tapering on emerging markets
In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.


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