RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Wouter van Eijkelenburg

Econoom

Wouter werkt als econoom voor RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets sinds 2020.

Wouter is verantwoordelijk voor de regio Zuidoost-Azië, Australië  & Nieuw Zeeland. Daarnaast volgt Wouter de valuta van Indonesië, Filipijnen, Maleisië, Thailand en Vietnam. Wouter schrijft rapporten over de laatste macro economische en geopolitieke ontwikkelingen in de regio alsmede over de ontwikkeling van de bovengenoemde valutamarkten.

Hiervoor werkte Wouter voor Rabobank als strategisch adviseur publiek private samenwerking en handelsbevordering. Wouter heeft twee master titels:Urban, Port & Transport Economics en Strategy & Entrepreneurship Economics, beide behaald aan de Erasmus Universiteit.

Publicaties Wouter van Eijkelenburg

Themabericht

Australia: Policymakers shifting gears (Engelstalig)

The recent Australian federal budget represents a shift in budget strategy away from budget prudence towards higher spending. The combination of loose fiscal and monetary stimulus increases inflation expectations. However, the RBA doesn’t expect a rate hike before 2024 due to spare capacity in the economy.

Special

Second wave of Covid-19 impacts economic recovery in India (Engelstalig)

The number of new infections in India will bottom out in May. Economic pain will come through decreased private consumption after mobility levels dropped. RBI continues its accommodative policy but relatively high debt levels limit the government’s flexibility to support the economy.

Themabericht

Travel bubble brings Australia out of isolation (Engelstalig)

The establishment of a travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia has more symbolic than economic value. Even though the Australian labour market has shown a strong performance over the last months, the end of the JobKeeper program is hanging above the labour market like the sword of Damocles.

Special

Comparing G20’s cash cannon in 2020 (Engelstalig)

Advanced G20 countries have really fired up the cash cannon compared to emerging G20 economies during Covid-19. But without this sizeable government spending by both the advanced and the emerging G20 countries, G20’s total contraction could have been four times more severe.

Themabericht

India: Second wave and vacci”notion” (Engelstalig)

India showed 0.4% GDP growth in Q3 of FY21. Unfortunately a second wave of Covid cases is on the rise, which might hamper growth in the next months. Although vaccine implementation started mid-January, the pace of vaccination must accelerate if India is to reap economic benefits in 2021. Fortunately, availability of vaccines is not a constraint.

Special

ASEAN update: Recovering from Covid-19 (Engelstalig)

We expect all ASEAN economies to grow this year, although at different speeds. The current high number of new Covid-19 cases underlines that the virus will continue to challenge economic recovery throughout 2021.

Themabericht

India: The two faces of FY22 budget (Engelstalig)

We expect a fiscal Q3 GDP figure of -1.8% (y/y) on 26 of February. In general, the outlook for India is improving as the economy picks up and the prospect of additional fiscal support as presented in the FY22 budget. At the same time the policies of the RBI and the government do entail a dose of future risk.

Special

Geopolitieke kansen en bedreigingen voor Nederland

De toenemende rol van geopolitiek in de economie brengt zowel bedreigingen als kansen met zich mee. Nederland heeft een goed uitgangspunt door zijn sterke concurrentiepositie maar ook kwetsbaarheden zoals de afhankelijkheid van bepaalde buitenlandse goederen en diensten.

Conjunctuurbeeld

Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap (Engelstalig)

The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.