Maartje Wijffelaars volgt de politieke en economische ontwikkelingen in Italië, Spanje en de bredere economie van de eurozone.
Daarnaast schrijft ze over grensoverschrijdende onderwerpen zoals de (handels-)relatie tussen de EU en de VS. Maartje werkt sinds 2013 bij de Rabobank. Hiervoor heeft ze gewerkt aan de Universiteit Antwerpen. Daar deed zij onderzoek naar de relatie tussen financiële instellingen en overheidsschuld in de eurozone ten tijde van de financiële en Europese schuldencrisis. Maartje heeft International Economics and Finance gestudeerd aan Tilburg University.
Special
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism introduces a carbon levy on some EU imports. It should help create a carbon level playing field for EU producers. The EU seems to prefer international cooperation on climate, but will move forward if partners move too slow.
Special
Government support and a drop in the labor force curtailed the increase in Eurozone unemployment. Going forward, specific industries may struggle to find adequately skilled staff, but we don’t foresee general labor shortages.
Conjunctuurbeeld
Italy started the year on a weak footing, but the outlook has been brightening over the past weeks. The economy is opening up and activity has been rapidly gaining speed. We forecast the economy to be back at its pre-COVID level in 2023Q1.
Themabericht
The European Commission has received an official go to start borrowing money to finance the EU recovery fund. Funds can start to flow to Member States this Summer. We estimate that these funds will lift Eurozone GDP by 0.5% over this and next year.
Themabericht
In the first quarter, the Eurozone economy contracted with 0.6%. Germany the performed worst among the large Member States (-1.7%). We project the recovery to resume in the current quarter and the EU recovery fund to lift GDP by 0.5% over 2021 and 2022.
Conjunctuurbeeld
After a contraction in Q1, we project subdued economic growth in Q2 and a pronounced recovery in the second half of the year. It will take until mid-2023 before Spain’s GDP will reach its pre-COVID level, provided that the vaccination pace accelerates.
Themabericht
The relationship between the EU and the US appears to be improving under the Biden administration, but several potential conflicts remain, such as the taxation of big tech and fossil energy, and tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Special
Italy’s government headed by Mario Draghi faces a major task and serious challenges. Nevertheless, we argue that Draghi’s arrival has brightened Italy’s future. The economy should reach its pre-crisis level mid-2023, helped by the EU Recovery fund.
Special
After a harsh start of the year, the Eurozone economic outlook should start to improve from next quarter. With help of the EU recovery fund, the economy will hit its pre-pandemic level mid-2022. Yet only if the vaccination campaign gains ample speed.
Column
Voormalig ECB-president Mario Draghi is gevraagd een nieuwe regering te vormen. Hij moet Italië door de crisis heen loodsen en het herstelplan van de grond krijgen. De uitdaging is enorm, maar als iemand het kan is hij het.