RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

Hugo Erken

Senior-econoom

Hugo werkt als senior-econoom bij RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.

Hij is landenanalist voor de VS, Canada, Mexico, India en enkele andere Zuid-Aziatische landen. Daarnaast is hij betrokken bij de groeiramingen, scenarioanalyses en schrijft hij mee aan periodieke studies, met speciale aandacht voor de arbeidsmarkt en productiviteit. Hiervoor was Hugo analist voor China, de eurozone, Duitsland en Frankrijk.

Hugo heeft internationale economie gestudeerd aan de Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen en is gepromoveerd aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. Hij heeft gewerkt voor het ministerie van Economische Zaken, het Ministerie van Sociale Zaken en Werkgelegenheid en het Centraal Planbureau.

Publicaties Hugo Erken

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy (Engelstalig)

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Themabericht

India: 2019 Economic Outlook (Engelstalig)

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Video

India: 2019 Economic Outlook - video (Engelstalig)

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Themabericht

India: GDP data revision - Eat your cake, don’t ‘cook’ it (Engelstalig)

There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.

Economisch commentaar

The G20 High Stakes Dinner between the US and China (Engelstalig)

At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war (Engelstalig)

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.