RaboResearch - Economisch Onderzoek

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Themabericht

UK: to QE or not to QE? (Engelstalig)

The pace of economic recovery is slowing before the fiscal squeeze has kicked in. But the BoE is hesitant to launch QE2 given the higherthan expected inflation (expectations). There are definitely short-term upside risks to inflation, mostly due to the VAT hike in January 2011.

Themabericht

Public debt: nothing to fear but fear itself (Engelstalig)

Investors are worried that rising public debt to GDP ratios in the advanced economies will eventually lead to a wave of sovereign defaults. To calm market nerves, therefore, governments have announced austerity measures to lower debt ratios to more ‘sustainable levels’.

Landenrapport

Country Report Russia (Engelstalig)

Russia’s oil and gas dependent economy has started to recover slowly from the sharp downturn in 2009, with real GDP growth estimated at 4.2% and 4% in the next two years.

Column

Het nieuwe normaal

Bevolkingskrimp is in ons land onontkoombaar. De Nederlandse bevolking als geheel zal nog tot ongeveer 2040 blijven groeien. Maar nu al krimpen gebieden in Groningen, Limburg en Zeeland. Na eeuwen van bevolkingsgroei zal het ‘nieuwe normaal’ steeds vaker een krimp van de bevolking betekenen.

Landenrapport

Taiwan (Country report) (Engelstalig)

The island of Taiwan has a dynamic, capitalist economy which has sharply rebounded from the effects of the global financial crisis. Economic activity will expand by over 9% yoy in 2010, a large improvement from the 1.9% contraction in 2009.

Landenrapport

Maldives (Country report) (Engelstalig)

A structural country risk the Maldives are facing is climate change. If the sea level rises only by a couple of meters, the majority of the Maldives will be submerged. The political situation is very unstable, as the opposition and the ruling party are frequently at loggerheads hindering any progress on reforms.